Obama not likely to move for Korea FTA’s ratification this year: scholar
Yonhap News, Korea
Obama not likely to move for Korea FTA’s ratification this year: scholar
By Hwang Doo-hyong
15 March 2010
WASHINGTON (Yonhap) — The Obama administration will not likely move for ratification of the pending free trade deal with South Korea this year due to health care reform, the economy and other more pressing issues, a scholar said Monday.
The question is "where it will rank in priority compared to health care, climate change, education reform and stimulus packages," said Michael Green, senior adviser and Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, at a forum here. "I think probably the conventional wisdom in town is that the administration is not going to try to do much, frankly, on the legislative side, before the midterm elections. And people in Australia and Asia will know that."
Green was discussing the KORUS FTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) the U.S. is set to sign with Australia and several other Asian economies to help prop up the U.S. economy, struggling with the worst recession in decades, ahead of President Barack Obama’s upcoming trip to Australia and Indonesia.
South Korea wants the trade pact, signed in 2007, to be ratified by both legislatures by this summer, noting the politically sensitive mid-term elections in November.
U.S. officials have publicly discussed the need to address the imbalance in auto trade and the restricted shipments of beef, possibly in side agreements to avoid a complicated revision of the text of the deal, before bringing it to Congress for approval.
South Korean officials have said that the U.S. has not yet raised those issues, let alone present remedies, amid growing protectionist sentiment in the worst economic downturn since the 1930s.
"To do the KORUS, they have to get the Congress to pass the free trade agreement with Korea," Green said. "And there’s a real question about whether the president still controls his caucus enough to do this. So right now it’s a game of rhetoric and what isn’t happening is action on the ground in Washington."
The scholar said he expects Obama will buy time.
"The rhetoric has been late in coming, so that will carry us for a little while, but sooner or later, I think there’s going to be a credibility problem," he said. "And again, it probably won’t move until after the midterm. And then we’ll see what happens."
Green, however, urged Obama to move quickly, noting other U.S. trading partners are moving to forge free trade deals among themselves.
"We probably have a few years. So the president can let the wheels spin politically for a year on this," he said. "But if by the end of his term, we’re not actively and credibly engaged in some of these free trade arrangements, there will be things like Korea-EU free trade agreement, ASEAN-India and so forth. And increasingly U.S. business will find that they’re dealing with disadvantaged positions."
South Korea reached a free trade deal with India early this year and expects another in the coming months with the European Union. Seoul has been actively seeking similar deals with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and other countries.
Victor Cha, senior adviser and Korea chair at the CSIS, echoed Green.
"The Koreans negotiated the EU FTA, then the FTA with India, just leaving the United States behind," he said.
In his first State of the Union Address in January, Obama said, "If America sits on the sidelines while other nations sign trade deals, we will lose the chance to create jobs on our shores, and that’s why we will strengthen our trade relations in Asia and with key partners like South Korea, Panama, and Colombia."
Obama also said last month he "would press for passage this year of free-trade agreements with South Korea, Panama and Colombia" to help create jobs through export growth, although he cautioned that "different glitches" must first be resolved with each country.
Cha said he gives Obama "credit because he came out in year two and really has sort of put trade on the agenda in a way that many of us in year one were wondering where they were on trade."
"I give them points on making the turn, but this trip is not going to help them on the trade front," he said.
In the 2010 Trade Policy Agenda submitted to Congress early this month, the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office said, "With Korea, we are determined how best to address outstanding issues, particularly related to automobiles and beef. If these outstanding issues can be successfully resolved, we will work with Congress on a timeframe to submit them for Congressional consideration."
